Forecasting Exercise

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You are the supply chain manager for
an electronics-manufacturing company. In this assignment, you will use the
following data to obtain forecasts for your company through various forecasting
techniques.

Quarter

Forecast

Actual
Demand

Error

4Q 2008

200

220

1Q 2009

220

215

2Q 2009

215

210

3Q 2009

210

220

4Q 2009

220

225

1Q 2010

225

240

2Q 2010

240

255

3Q 2010

260

4Q 2010

270

1Q 2011

Consolidate the results of the
following problems in a 2- to 3-page report in a Microsoft Word document. Do
not use Microsoft Excel utilities for this assignment.

  • Using the three quarters moving average, find out the
    forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011.
  • Compute the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011
    using exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.6.
  • Compute the forecasts for all quarters of 2010 using
    the three quarter weighted moving average, with the most recent data
    weighted at 0.5, the second-most recent data weighted at 0.35, and the
    third-most recent data weighted at 0.15.
  • Using the data provided in the above table, explain
    what forecasting techniques are being used for 2008 and the first two
    quarters of 2009.
  • Computed the forecasting error using the exponential
    smoothing technique.
  • Computed the forecasting error using the weighted
    moving average method.
  • On the basis of your calculations, explain which
    technique provides the most accurate forecast for your company. Explain
    your answer with critical reasoning.

Using the APA format, cite the
sources you use on a separate page.

Save your document as
SU_MBA6012_W2_A2_LastName_FirstInitial.doc.

Submit it to the W2: Assignment 2
Dropbox
by Week 2, Day 4.

Assignment
2 Grading Criteria

Maximum
Points

Computed the forecasts for 3Q
2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using the three quarter moving average.

2

Computed the forecasts for 3Q
2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing
factor of 0.6.

2

Computed the forecasts for all
quarters of 2010 using the three quarter weighted moving average, with the
most recent data weighted at 0.5, the second-most recent data weighted at
0.35, and the third-most recent data weighted at 0.15.

6

Correctly identified what
forecasting techniques are being used for 2008 and the first two quarters of
2009.

2

Computed forecasting errors using
the exponential smoothing technique and the weighted moving average method.

8

Analyzed which technique provides
the most accurate forecast for your company and justified your response with
appropriate reasoning.

10

Presented a structured document
free of spelling and grammatical errors.

5

Properly cited the sources using
the APA format.

5

Total:

40

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