Forecast Model for DataNet

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DataNet Excel attachment

1. 
DataNet
is an Internet service where clients can find information and purchase various
items such as airline tickets, stereo equipment, and just about any other
consumer product. DataNet has been in operation for four years. Data on monthly
calls for service for the time that the company has been in business are in an
Excel data file called DataNet.  (Download the DataNet file.)  In order to have appropriate staffing levels
each month, the company wishes to generate a one-month ahead forecast.

a. 
 Develop a
3-period Moving Average model and provide the forecast for month 49.

b. 
Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the model
developed in part a.

c. 
Develop a linear trend model and provide the
forecast for month 49

d. 
Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the model
developed in part c.

e. 
Determine the optimal smoothing constant for
a single exponential smoothing model such that the MAD value is minimized.  Discuss this result.  What does it actually mean?

f. 
Based on the model developed in part e.,
indicate what the month 49 forecast value is.

g. 
Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the model
developed in parts e and f.

h. 
Based on the responses to parts a. – g., what
forecast would you recommend that DataNet use for period 49?

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